Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of January 18 2006

by Michael Mandeville

Major Anomaly In Chandler's Wobble - 2005/2006

(ECB - January 18, 2005, MWM) There is a relatively large, developing anomaly in the spiraling motion of the spin axis, including an huge phase shift, a shortening of the length of the normal 7 year cycle, the tightening of the spiral motion into an exceptionally small spiral, and a major acceleration in the drift of the Spin Axis (secular drift of the poles, or so-called True Polar Wander). This anomaly is on-going and portends major changes in tectonic activity during ensuing years.

See the latest plot: Go immediately and see the current wobble track at:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/earthchange-bulletins/files/wobbletrac_Jan17_05.gif

Plus, as soon as my FTP server is operating again (it is off Wednesday Jan 18 for some reason) the first portion of this update about the Polar Motion Anomaly and the graph of the wobble track will be permanently at http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polormotion/plots/2006_wobble_anomaly.htm
This page will become a continually updated briefing page about the developing shift in the behavior of the Spin Axis.

This rather large anomaly began in the Earth's Wobble (in so-called Chandler's Wobble) approximately November 1, 2005. The current spiral of polar motion (the track of the changing location of the Spin Axis in its regular 14 month wobble around its average location) has abruptly made a 90 degree "turn" to create a very small or tight "turn" in the spiral of the daily plot of the motion of the Spin Axis. This current turn can be seen in red in the graph below. It began approximately November 1 and is still on-going. This anomalous turn is the smallest turn which has ever appeared in Chandler's Wobble since reliable plots began to be drawn in 1900. It is currently at least one third of the average size.

The anomaly appears as a sudden phase shift (frequency change) in the current 7 year X WAVE of the Chandler Amplitude (size of the spiral). The Spin Axis has apparently entered into its MINIMUM wobble size some ten months early, thus abruptly shortening the 7 year length of the (X WAVE) cycle in the wobble. This phase shift can also be thought of as a sudden increase in the frequency of the wobble.

Normally, the red line in the diagram would be nearly horizontal at this time in its cycle, tracking to the right of the diagram. It should be tracking to move roughly horizontal to the right about three more grid lines (each grid line is equivalent to 5.1 feet or 0.05 arcsecond or 50 mas or 1.55 meters) during the course of the next eight months. QUITE OBVIOUSLY IT IS NOT GOING TO MAKE IT. NOT EVEN CLOSE.

At the current time the nearly vertical plot of the Spin Axis (as shown in red) is moving somewhat slowly at approximately a 20 to 25 degree angle to the X Axis (computed by averaging through a protractor). This equates to movement along Longitude East 160 to 155 by "dead-reckoning".

Of course this apparent motion is an illusion. The Spin Axis is not really moving, it stays oriented to the same fixed stars. It is really the crust of the Earth which is moving, sliding over the Spin Axis, moving from Longitude East 155-160 down towards Longitude West 20-25. Since this is nearly a 2.5 month track (the red portion), the crust of the Earth is actually wobbling or changing the actual location of the Spin Axis quite slowly compared to its more aggressive spirals, which can be see in the much larger black circular tracks. Each complete spiral turn into a completed circle normally takes about 14 months.

BUT, comparatively, the average location of the Spin Axis is being radically changed at a very high rate of speed, . The tight, 90 degree turn is creating a dramatic acceleration in the drift of the average location of the Spin Axis (secular drift of the pole or so-called True Polar Wander).

The speed of the drift for the first 90 years of the 20th century was estimated by geophysicists who contributed to the work of the IERS (International Earth Rotation Service) to average out at 10.2 centimeters per year. This number is widely supported by geophysicists as can be seen by this quote from "The Prophecies":

"numbers computed by Gross and Vondraik for the period 1900 to 1992. They estimated a direction of W79.2 with a rate of 33 feet per century (which is 10.05 centimeters/year. More recently, Zhigen Yang, a Chinese scholar, presented a poster calculation for proceedings on “Space Astronomy Survey and Earth Dynamics” for the Chinese Geophysical Society (see <http://www.cgs.org.cn/event/16(14).htm)>www.cgs.org.cn/event/16(14).htm) which finds a rate of True Polar Wander at .003356 arcsecond per year (10.4 centimeters) in a direction of Longitude W78.7 ± 2.5 degrees. This is in close agreement with the 1988 calculations by Moritz and Mueller and the 1996 numbers by Gross and Vondraik."

When the rate of drift of the average location of the Spin Axis (which is the center point of the spiral tracks, as seen in the diagram) is computed for the entire 20th century, an acceleration appears to be noticable, most likely as a consequence of the addition of numbers from the 1990's. This is summarized in "The Prophecies": "Perhaps even more convincing are calculations made by Joachim Hopfner in a technical paper for the IERS consortium (Science Technical Report ISSN 1610-0956). With a lengthy statistical analysis of several systems of defining the location and motion of the pole during the past 100 years, Hopfner compared the results of several of the most well known geophysicists and concluded that a good mean figure for True Polar Wander is .00391 arcsecond/yr (12.13 centimeters moving in the direction of Longitude W65.17."

If we analyze the rate of drift directly from the geometry displayed in the Wobble Track diagram above, we can plainly see that in the period 1999-2005, the apparent drift between the centers of the two smallest circles. The 1999 spiral is the small black circle near the center of the diagram. The spiral which is currently forming is shown by the red line. Notice the huge difference in size. The displacement between the approximate centers by dead reckoning is at least .1 arcsecond, which is some 10.2 feet or 310.9 centimeter over a 6 year period. This is an average of .017 arcsecond/yr. or some 51.823 centimeters/yr for the period 1999-2005.

This is easily an acceleration of at least 4.25, possibly more like 5. CURRENTLY NOW POLAR MOTION GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF MOVING IN "TRUE POLAR WANDER" AT A RATE WHICH IS ABOUT 4.25 to 5 TIMES FASTER THAN DURING THE 20TH CENTURY, USING BASE COMPARATIVES COMPUTED AT DIFFERENT TIMES BY DIFFERENT SCHOLARS IN CHINA, U.S., AND GERMANY WHICH ARE RELATIVELY RECENT. (ALL WITH THE LAST 18 YEARS).

MOST OF THIS APPARANT SHIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY A HIGHLY VISIBLE ANOMALY WHICH BEGAN IN NOVEMBER 2005 AND WHICH IS STILL ON-GOING. In other words, this apparent shift is not really over a six year period. It is over a much narrower window of time comprising just the last few months, which on a short time factor gives us an acceleration factor minimally in the range of 30 plus, perhaps larger.

Or not. It is possible that the Earth will somewhat recover its more normal wobble track. The wobble is well known to be somewhat irregular, as can be seen in the somewhat jagged appearance of the 1999 small black circle. Thus, it is a little early to be certain about the actual magnitude of the change which is being created at the current time. The track of the Spin Axis may begin to flatten horizontally and reduce the degree of displacement and the amount of phase shift. But even so, most likely the shift is already too advanced to be merely a fleeting blip in the statistics. The acceleration of the drift of the average location of the Spin Axis will not completely evaporate, it is likely to remain a significant multiple, well over 2. A real shift has occurred, most likely the largest since the plots began to be made with enough points per year to produce a reasonable graph (circa 1900).

One interesting result of this shift is the resurgence of the trend of drift along W80. The center of this spiral for 2006 is likely to reduce the apparent drift down W65-75.

One intriguing possibility is that this shifting is purely related to the mass functions of and IN the Earth. This anomaly is directly correlated with gravity since it is showing up at Earth’s Perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) during an extremely close alignment with Venus and a New Moon at Perigee in its South Node (South of the Equator) all drawing up on the heavy “pear-bottom” of the Earth (Antarctica). Alignments hardly come more synchronized than this. Does the truncated X MIN spiral which is forming reveal that mass vectors in the Earth have reached a stage of arrangement which can accelerate the pulling of the Earth’s crust in a way which accelerates the centrifugal push of the Earth’s crust past its well-worn “grooves” in the mantle? If so, this truncation of the spiral circles of the Wobble may be seen more and more, most especially during each succeeding X MIN phase. In other words, is an acceleration of the shifting of the average location of the Spin Axis beginning to occur at a rate which squishes the short, relatively slow X MIN spirals?

One highly interesting question which remains is whether this apparent acceleration and increase of instability in the Spin Axis will build progressively. This we have no way to answer this at the current time.

One interesting implication is the likely increase in tectonic activity which may follow during the next 20 years or so. The last major anomaly in the MIN phase of the X WAVE was during 1936, which induced a major phase shift and sharp change in direction of the drift of the pole. Following that anomaly, the frequency of 7.0 plus quakes nearly doubled from some 18 per year to over 30 per year. The year following the anomaly saw many major increases in volcanism. We are likely headed towards a similar 20 year season of increase in tectonic activity, beginning with a major increase in volcanism during 2006-08 and the occurrence of more 7.0 plus quakes, even as many three per month for many years afterwards. This activity, combined with the effects of Global Warming on the creation of Super Storms, are likely to keep the news channels quite busy.

This anomaly will be of significant interest to fans of Edgar Cayce, the famed sleeping prophet. He predicted during the mid 1930's that a new cycle of the shifting of the poles would begin in 2000/2001 and thereafter an increase would begin in "upheavals" in the Earth. Since this anomaly has appeared in a "cycle" of Chandler's Wobble which began in 2000, just after the completion of the MIN PHASE in 1999, we are now seeing Cayce's prediction fulfilled with remarkable fidelity. We have both a new cycle of an increased shifting of the poles and an increase in “upheavals” with the activity which struck Sumatra in Dec 2004 and early 2005. Such upheavals are more likely during 2006, both by the previous patterns of increases related to the X MIN phase of Chandler’s Wobble and by Cayce’s predictions. Be advised accordingly.

A NEW CYCLE IN THE SHIFTING OF THE EARTH’S SPIN AXIS IS OCCURRING AND WE CAN AWARD EDGAR CAYCE WITH ONE OF THE BIGGEST CLAIRVOYANT HITS OF ALL TIME. MATTER OF FACT, I AM DOING IT NOW, REALLY. I AM GOING TO REVISE THE SCORE NUMBERS FOR CAYCE IN THE TRILOGY. I AM GOING TO LEAVE THE NUMBERS THE SAME IN BOOKS ONE AND TWO, PARTLY FOR HISTORICAL INTEREST, BUT I AM GOING TO MAKE AN ADDENDUM IN BOOK THREE AND COMPUTE A NEW SCOREBOARD FOR CAYCE.

I expect that now the Earth’s Wobble will become more and more eccentric in response to its obvious mass-instability. A significant phase shift will show a much faster rate of displacement than the previous century and this rate of displacement is likely to continue to accelerate. The end result will be a “pole shift”, as is said in the pop press, or more accurately, an avalanche of the crust will be the end result. Having said this, it is impossible to guess at the moment how this is grinding out.


SOLAR VORTEX
Sunspots for the January 21 three-way alignment Venus | Earth | Saturn peaked on January 14, just about seven days early as is very typical, at 46. They are now down to 36 and likely will fall to 10 or below, though the count may linger in the 30’s and 20’s for a week. Fluxgate is recording a few brief, small flurries of magnetic activity, mostly it is flat line. NASA reports less than 5% odds of flares, solar activity is low.

SO – You lucked out with the weird weather. It may be bizarre but believe me, it could have gotten much worse with a Sunspot Count of 100 or so. The bad news is that the jet stream has set up its regime for this Winter and it not budging with little Sun activity to nudge it. Accordingly, the drought will built in the desert zones. The Pacific Northwest, well, you have to live up to your legend once in awhile. This is your destiny calling in to remind you how wet it it is that you have telling everyone it is up there. You are getting your karma for those tall tales. Not to feel alone …Texas is getting its karma delivered in the Bushes.

QUAKES AND VOLCANOES
The Moon is sliding into oblivion for the next seven days, betwixt all Whammies. Quake activity is sharply down in both frequency and magnitude, more centered in the West Pacific (East Asia)than anywhere else. Six minor shape-shifters have struck the Great Rifts of the oceans this past seven days but there is no apparent build up of activity along the Western coasts of the Americas.

The next New Moon is January 28, 2004, once again close to a Perigee. Earthquake activity should be much more virulent in frequency and magnitude from about January 25 through to about February 3.

Next Perigee
Jan 30 7:48 357780 km N+ 17h

Maintain high vigilance during each of the next three Perigee New Moons, plus or minus four days either side. I believe you can relax after that.

El Popo was largely sleepy today but volcanic activity is still moving upwards. Augustine in Alaska is the most active but it company with 22 active volcanoes, most of which are now active enough to cause new reports to be written each week for gas, ash, or lava. SWVC also reports 6 restless and 62 on the alert list. This is a most vigorous start than 2005 and thus I expect that during 2006 volcanism will be more explosive and colorful than in the previous five years.


AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:
Erebus, on Ross Sound in Antarctica, one of the most active volcanoes in the world (apparently 100 years nonstop of liquid lava lake and virtually daily strombolian explosions)is once again showing a major peak in its activity, equivalent to the last peak in its activity during the last X MIN phase of the Earth's Wobble.

Since technically we have not quite flown into the X MIN at the moment, this peak of activity is a little on the early side. But perhaps not, perhaps we have entered into it rather early. This volcano, little known, may be an exceptionally important harbinger to the stresses in the Earth's crust. The charts of the monthly and annual count of eruptions at Erebus which are posted at the SWVC are well worth watching for signs of a major shift in the tectonic activity of the Earth.

http://www.swvrc.org/cerupt.htm <http://www.swvrc.org/e-tot.jpg>http://www.swvrc.org/e-tot.jpg


AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: This period actually has one additional whammy built into it for the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire. I cannot explain why, but during a X MIN year when the wobble is as small as it gets during its seven year cycle of expansion and contraction, seismic activity mag 3.0 plus in Japan and California go way up, even doubling overall for the year. This has been seen several times since 1962.

Worldwide, overall quake activity above 3.0 decreases or at least seems to "pause" in its growth curve during the X MIN, but overall volcanic activity increases RADICALLY, which is followed in the next expansionary phase of Chandler's Wobble with an increase in the acceleration of Earthquake activity. This pattern has been seen repeatedly since 1973.

These patterns can be seen ever more clearly in the charts I have updated for the "Return of the Phoenix".

Based on these charts I can predict that 2006 will be the most dangerous earthquake period in California and Japan since 2000, with "big ones" much more probable than during the past several years. This zone of danger will persist all year and into 2007 through at least the Spring. Thereafter the danger will diminish through the next X Wave cycle of Chandler's Wobble.

MAJOR PROVISO: Polar Motion is currently anomalous. This affects all else related to tectonic activity. Accordingly, predictions based on past relationships are not necessarily valid.

St. Helens is likely to have the major eruption it has been building up towards this past year, along with Popo, Colima, and of course with major flare-ups in the steady erupters, including esp. Etna and Kilauea. If St. Helens erupts, expect it will have company in the Far East in Kamchatka, the Aleutians, the Kuriles, and possibly Japan and the Philippines.

Any volcanic pre-signaling during 2006 should be taken with GRAVE ATTENTION. Often times the flare up of pre-signals lead to nothing, but during the next 18 months they are more probable than at other times to actually lead to increased activity.

THE TRILOGY VORTEX:

The revised version of Books One and Two are available now at the website. All current paid subscribers should now have their access codes. If you do not, please contact me at mwman@earthlink.net

Book Three will slide to late January. After finishing them, I will put the entire trilogy into paperback and hardbound editions.

FOR ALL OTHER MATTERS AS RELATED BELOW.

The winds of change are gusting heavily everywhere. The spiritual energies wax and wane daily, hourly even, between extreme lucidity and stultifying confusion. Luckily for me, enough people are flowing in and out of these states to convince me that it is not just me becoming old. Personal change in attitudes and perceptions (much the same thing) will accelerate greatly this year.

On the economic and political fronts, the long time of benign, patiently waiting stability around the world, out of which framework the Imperial Faction hallucinated their concept of preeminence and their quite kinky tastes for playing World Super Duper Dom, IS DISINTEGRATING MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANY SOCIAL CHANGE WE HAVE OBSERVED IN OUR LIFETIMES, EXCEPT FOR THOSE WHO LIVED THROUGH THE 30'S AND 40's.

AND HERE IS WHAT THE OLD ONES WHO HAD TO LIVE THROUGH THE VIOLENT AND RADICAL CHANGES OF THE GREAT BREAKUP OF THE DEPRESSION AND WORLD WAR YEARS ARE NOW WHISPERING MORE AND MOE IN ASIDES:

What is happening now, this country and its pathetic incompetent political system

...THIS IS NOT GOING TO STAND...

And so it is in the South, the people are awakening and kicking out American policies, companies, and banks from most of the major countries, all through democratic mass action and refusal to cower before the corruptions and perversions engendered by the plutocrats. By the end of the year, the Hispanic Nations of the South will have moved a long way out of the U.S. orbit, collectively exploring new alignments with each other, China, Russia, India, and others. New American heros are emerging and none of them live North of Mexico.

And so it is in the heartland and Western portion of America, which reviles the Democrats posturing in Washington DC (without courage) as much as the crooks who are masqurading as Republicans. Off with all of their heads. The Clintonistas, the Bushitas, and the never-neverland mystical centrista are rotting poltical corpses of yesteryear. And so are the fatallly wounded institutions of the morbidly stiff Republic. A new wave is coming, a tidal wave of determination to pull down the Empire:

In Reaganesque style:

MR. AND MRS. AMERICA - PULL DOWN THIS EMPIRE!!!!

Will somebody make a T-shirt on this and offer them for sale and yield a royalty to MetaSyn Media so we can pay a crew of editors....??? We the people in the West have to pull together an entire new mass media to surplant the Imperial Press of New York.

And so it is in the economy. Major labor groups are rising in militant rejection of continuing with the current trends. They are this year coming to terms with the simple fact that they cannot continue with the huck shuck and jive of globalism. They must now begin to seek to induce a radical change in government and the functioning of the economy. The coming slide will push them into the streets to push the stuffed and puffed money-crazed white penguins out of politics everywhere.

And so on and so on and so on: there is one consensus. THIS CANNOT BE ALLOWED ANYMORE. THIS CANNOT STAND. And this is the year of the breaking. It will get thick and heavy in the succeding three years.

ECONOMIC VORTEX: as previously reported

Don't blink. Hold your course.

The Stock Markets are irrational, just as they were in 1929. Too much credit driving too many bubbles, along with the same debate as in 1929 about too much credit and too many bubbles.

I previously predicted 2006 for the meltdown, then estimated recently that the meltdown window would be mid-Spring to mid-Fall. SOROS, the mega-billionaire who knows money better than anyone as the world’s greatest arbitrageur of relative values and their movements, now predicts the “recession” will begin in 2007. This will still fit Cayce’s curve to a T. I hope he is right and I hope that I am wrong.

If by Soros schedule, boy o’ girl will it be suddenly steep.

Almost all observers agree that the housing bubble is the driver of the current economy and that it is bound to break in 2006. The questions are when, where, how much, how fast. In Arizona, probably last. All the sellers in California are currently buying up property in Arizona after collecting their enormous largesse from the bubble on the Coast. In California, probably first. The values are so unreal you cannot even imagine. Asian money must be the driver. Recess the world economy, that money will disappear in the twinkling of an eye.

In the meantime, we are pretty much at the beginning of 1929 with the same kind of psycho-dynamics and vastly over-inflated bubbles at work with easy credit far too easy to obtain to inflate the bubble even more. Welcome to the re-run of the Great Depression, you are still right on time.

AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK: In Iraq, a new government, thankfully, will form, a national unity move will begin, and by March 2006, the U.S. will be asked to leave rather abruptly so that the Iraqi's can get on with fixing the basic utilities in the country with the help of Iran/Gulf States money. So will the U.S. be out of there in, say, six months? With the Iran play now unfolding it very difficult to predict much of anything....see the next item.

VERY PATHETHIC PSYCHO VORTEX:

MASS MEDIA BREEDS IGNORNANCE - I will proudly wear this T Shirt every time I write this update. It is now my official mascot for this effort. Get one. Start wearing them. All the major U.S. news organizations deserve as many rotten tomatoes hurled at them as we are capable of hurling.

AND GET THIS. The Bush Administration CANNOT figure out an EXIT strategy because the strategy is, THERE IS NO EXIT STRATEGY AND THERE WILL BE NO EXIT STRATEGY. Least not till BUSH or his successor IS IMPEACHED. DUH.

And of course, most of both Republicans and Democrats are still complicit in this tacit gambit of Mass Deception in support of their One World Dominance Kink.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: THE THREAT OF A BROADER WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS A RESULT OF WESTERN IMPERIAL POLICIES IS EXTREMELY REAL AND EXCEPTIONALLY GRAVE. Neither Israel nor the U.S. can accomplish their goals with military force against Iran. Yet there really is a faction of well-entrenched Imperialists in the U.S. and Britain who are and who intend to continue to pursue policies of violent dominance against many Arab nations. They continue to think that they can continue to con the American public in supporting their scam and as things look now, they are still amazingly successful with about 40% of the public, and about 70% of the editorial class of the Mass Media. They may figure this is enough to continue.

What is it about shills, they cannot stop shilling? Is it sort of like Hotel California, once you go there, you can never leave?

THE SHILLS OF WAR ARE A PART OF THE BIGGEST STORY OF STORIES OF THIS NASCENT CENTURY.

Most unfortunately, the only accomplishment of the Imperial Faction will be rather like their accomplishments in Iraq. There will be the gradual generation of World War IV and about 3 billion humans hostilely polarized for the remainder of Century 21 against everything American and Jewish. Not a very wise course of action. I am completely convinced that the fall of Israeli bombs in Iran will begin the rise of Nostradamus' fated figure, the so-called Anti-Christ, who will essentially be the "Mirror" in which the West will see its own terrible image. Already we can see in Iran the nascent President looking more and more like Bush's mirror. An Israeli strike, in Iran, or an American one, will be conducted by exactly the same arrogant, bigoted, stupid mentality which created "Custer's Last Stand". The result will be the same, except this: the West will not be able to eventually over-run these Eastern lands. The West will then have to look at its horrible reflection in the mirror through a long nightmare of decades of exceptional hostility, violence, and destruction, which in essence, it began.

Further to the East and to the North are large nations which can supply the Middle Eastern Nations with as much sophisticated technology as is needed to resist imperialists, all tradeable for large quantities of highly desired oil, all equally wary, from long past historical experience, of Crazy White Men from the West claiming to be Grand Poobahs of the Greatest Empire On Earth (29th Revival).

How anyone can continue to believe in the Crazy White Man crock of horse@#$& is utterly beyond me. It has about the same level of maturity as the tooth fairy.

Gotta another light? Nothing much on this front has changed this week. I need another very long drag while reflecting on the number and variety of people who are whispering the R word. Even little very old ladies are whispering the R word. Has the U.S. government and its nesting weasels ever been so hated in the last 100 years? Hurry up, where's that light?

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Best Wishes, Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
Author of "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
Author of "Earth Changes Almanac & Calendar 2003" http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar
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