by Michael Mandeville

My apologies for the large number of typo's in yesterday's Update. Obviously I was in a hurry, didn't proof-read very well, and the spell checker just can't comb out the perfectly well-formed but wrong words.

The anomalous motion in the location of the Spin Axis which I have been remarking upon is continuing. Part of the reason is we are in the X MIN phase, or nearly so. Comparison of X MIN phases during the last 100 years quickly demonstrates that the X MIN motion is the least regular motion of the spin axis. So in a sense this phase is always somewhat anomalous from all others.

But there is more here than during the past. The tightening spiral is just too tight at the moment. Obviously there is a large displacement of the focal point (ave. location of the pole), substantially larger than normal. For another thing, the motion of the Spin Axis is actually hesitating. There is a resistance to a smooth and regular motion in the wobble. The Spin Axis has actually slowed its wobble motion drastically during the past few weeks. This has no impact on the DAY or the regular 24 hour spin of the Earth. I am not talking about the actual spin, I am talking about the motion of the changing LOCATION of the spin axis. It is currently at nearly a dead stop.

This hesitation can be seen in polar motion predictions from the supercomputers. The next X MIN is now being projected by IERS to arrive on June 28. Here is the defining moment as predicted in France. These are the dates of the highest X values for 2006.

Date MJD x(arcsec) y(arcsec) UT1-UTC(sec)
2006 6 28 53914 0.0954 0.3167 0.25441
2006 6 29 53915 0.0954 0.3160 0.25503
2006 6 30 53916 0.0954 0.3153 0.25547
2006 7 1 53917 0.0954 0.3145 0.25575
2006 7 2 53918 0.0954 0.3138 0.25592
2006 7 3 53919 0.0954 0.3131 0.25606
2006 7 4 53920 0.0954 0.3123 0.25622
2006 7 5 53921 0.0954 0.3115 0.25648

This X figure is the highest annual point on the X axis during this year. It is the lowest annual high point in 7 years and thus defines the X MIN point, the time when the 7 year X WAVE is the lowest, or, when the spiral of the wobble is the smallest.

This point is earlier than predicted last week, earlier by four days and at a higher point than last week (0.0912). This is a significant deviation showing the current hesitation. The Earth appears to hesitate on each swing of the Spin Axis through this same quadrant.

I believe that we will continue to see the X MIN coming in even earlier. I believe that this is going to make it a short (not so) "seven" year cycle from MIN to MIN. I believe that we are going to be short a few months, the shortest cycle possibly in 100 years. I will have to measure this out after Christmas, month by month for many cycles.

Does this mean things really are speeding up? I think it may mean a "phase shift", which pretty much qualifies as being in the same pew as speeding up, at least temporarily. But don't go too far out on a limb with this yet. Let me do the hard numbers.

The date for transistion of the annual x plot motion to dip below X=0 has only slipped by one day, to October 9. This will commence the window of extraordinary seismic risk in the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire. The swing of the X plot into negative numbers after the X WAVE MIN, is the period of time in which earthquakes suddenly spike in daily frequency for magnitudes 3.0 and above in California and Japan, as I detected for the 1990's. I believe this will happen again, most likely anytime between about November 1 through to about the end of January.

According to the IERS numbers, the super computer model expects the wobble spiral to normalize out by widening out substantially during the next six months to show less curl. Maybe so, but the super computers cannot predict an anomalous shift in the phase and amplitude of the Wobble, such as occurred in 1936 and at a few other X MIN points. So it is inherently unknowable what is playing out at the moment.

Regardless, this coming year should be more active than this year for volcanism, but I believe that the season in 2007 will be even more awesome.

Side note: Hardly anyone is studying PLANETARY volcanism. Mostly people into such things study VOLCANOES. Accordingly, we have no decent planet-scope figures and it is thus hard to make truly objective charts. Smithsonian figures are quite squishy and their reports do not add up with other sites, and other impressions, for instance, with the Southwest Volcano Centre in Tuscon, which appears to be more aggressive in tracking volcanic eruptions. EVEN SO, it is clear that over-all volcanism has increased significantly duriing the past five years.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Earth Changes Bulletin Updates are usually published in a brief form and distributed free on a weekly basis. Occasionally Earth Changes Special Reports are produced on timely topics. This is Shareware Information, if it is useful to you, please help support it by making a VOLUNTARY donation (you will not be denied access). A donation of $2.00 per month or $24.00 per year is requested to sustain this work and additional benefits may be available. To provide a mechanism for making a donation, a donation request
will be emailed to new subscribers and periodically to all subscribers via Paypal, or click now on on this URL to make your donation.
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/catalog/donations_for_ec_bulletins.htm
See the bottom of this email message for website and contact URL's. To subscribe to the Earth Change Bulletins:
mailto:earthchange-bulletins-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
or you may unsubscribe by:
mailto:earthchange-bulletins-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Best Wishes, Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
Author of "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
Author of "Earth Changes Almanac & Calendar 2003" http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar
__________________________________________________
To order any books or products go to http://www.michaelmandeville.com/catalog/cosmic_cat.htm

Email News: everyone concerned about any level of the Earth Changes (geology, climate, economics, politics) must subscribe to: mailto:earthchange-bulletins-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
or you may unsubscribe by mailto:earthchange-bulletins-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

Conversation about the Earth Changes:
mailto:phoenix-quest-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
or you may unsubscribe by mailto:phoenix-quest-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

To check the latest status of the Change In The Earth and the location of Earth's Axis, go to: http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/
To connect with the on-going Phoenix Quest, go to: http://www.michaelmandeville.com/quest/